European cities face millions more deaths from extreme temperatures

In Europe as a whole, the increase in deaths from hot weather over the next century will outweigh the decline in deaths from cold weather, but in colder countries such as the UK, temperature-related deaths will decline overall

By Michael Le Page

27 January 2025

Tourists try to cool off in Rome, where a large increase in heat deaths is expected by 2099

Massimo Valicchia/NurPhoto via Getty Images

There will be an extra 2.3 million temperature-related deaths in Europe’s main cities by 2099 without more action to limit warming and adapt to it, researchers predict. However, in cities in colder northern countries such as the UK, there will be fewer temperature-related deaths over this period, because the decline in deaths from cold will be greater than the increase in deaths from heat.

“We estimate a slight net decrease, but it’s very small compared to the big increase we could see in the Mediterranean region,” says Pierre Masselot at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

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Masselot’s team started by looking at epidemiological studies on how deaths increase during periods of extreme heat or extreme cold. His team then used these statistical links to estimate how the number of excess deaths would change over the next century in various warming scenarios.

The study looks at 850 cities – home to 40 per cent of Europe’s population – but not any rural areas. This is because the statistical links are stronger where lots of people live in a small area and are exposed to roughly the same conditions.

If cities don’t adapt, the net effect of climate change increases exponentially with greater warming. In a scenario similar to our current course, the number of excess deaths related to temperature would increase by 50 per cent, from 91 per 100,000 people per year in recent years to 136 per 100,000 people per year by 2099.